Invalidation of Zahle elections could disadvantage majority

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001087 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2019 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, LE 
SUBJECT: INVALIDATION OF ZAHLE ELECTIONS COULD DISADVANTAGE 
MAJORITY 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (C) Reports are circulating of the possible invalidation 
of the election of three members of parliament from the Zahle 
district.  Should the Constitutional Council approve the 
pending petitions, the majority would lose likely lose ground 
and opposition-aligned former Zahle MP Elie Skaff would 
return to the political forefront.  The majority would, 
however, maintain its hold on the parliament even if the 
seats were overturned.  End summary. 
 
THREE SEATS AT RISK 
------------------- 
 
2. (C) The Constitutional Council, charged with investigating 
accusations of election infractions, may terminate the 
mandate of three members of parliament from Zahle based on 
challenges submitted by members of the opposition, according 
to late September press reports.  Pierre Fattouch, brother of 
Zahle MP Nicolas Fattouch, told us on September 25 that the 
Council might invalidate the election of MPs Oqab Sakr and 
Tony Bukhater, and Kataeb minister Elie Marouni.  The grounds 
for these challenges are likely related to the exceeding 
campaign spending limits during the June 7 parliamentary 
elections, Fattouch said.  (Note:  Of the 19 claims disputing 
results of the June 7 parliamentary elections, the opposition 
submitted eleven complaints in the districts of Zahle, Beirut 
1, and Akkar; March 14 candidates submitted five complaints 
in the Metn; three independent candidates filed complaints in 
Jezzine, Akkar, and Jbeil.  End note.) 
 
3. (SBU) The Council has several options when making its 
decisions, which are decided by a majority vote among the 
seven members.  It may remove an MP from his seat and 
re-appoint a different candidate in his place.  It can also 
annul the result of the disputed election and call for a new 
election to fill the seat.  In one previous case, the Council 
annulled the election of the disputed seat but appointed a 
different candidate instead of the plaintiff. 
 
ZAHLE UNSTEADY GROUND FOR HARIRI 
-------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Invalidating three seats and holding new elections in 
Zahle may loosen the majority's hold on the city, as a result 
of the shifting mood of the Zahle voters in favor of 
long-term Zahle leader Elie Skaff, whose unexpected loss 
during the June 7 election was a huge blow to Skaff 
personally and the opposition in general.  Several factors 
could benefit the opposition in a runoff election.  First, 
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri and his allies have 
changed their rhetoric towards Hizballah and its weapons. 
While Hariri's Future Movement mobilized the Zahle Sunnis 
before the elections through sharp anti-Hizballah rhetoric, 
the coalition's anti-Hizballah rhetoric was dropped soon 
after the June 7 elections were completed.  It will be 
difficult for the Future Movement to use the same tactic in 
the atmosphere of detente that is building up between Saudi 
Arabia and Syria. 
 
5. (C) Hariri also alienated his Zahle followers by failing 
to include a Zahle representative in the cabinet proposal he 
submitted to President Sleiman in early September.  Hariri 
ignored a petition signed by the seven Zahle MPs to appoint 
MP Nicolas Fattouch as minister, a decision that caused 
political discontent among the majority of Zahle Christians. 
The Christian opposition in Zahle is using this "Zahle 
neglect" argument as a tool to stress that Zahle has fallen 
into the hands of the "Sunni" majority. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6. (C) The Council,s final rulings are expected to have 
little impact on the overall election results since Hariri 
will still control 68 of 128 parliamentary seats even if the 
opposition wins the three seats that could be invalidated in 
Zahle.  Nevertheless the success of the opposition in a 
by-election scenario would be a blow, if only symbolic, to 
March 14 and could restore the leadership role to the Skaff 
family in Zahle. 
SISON