Geagea complains of March 14 isolation

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001359 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2019 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, SY, UNSC, SA, LE 
SUBJECT: GEAGEA COMPLAINS OF MARCH 14 ISOLATION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Syria is pushing hard to annul UN Security 
Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1559, and the U.S. should publicly 
reiterate its support for all resolutions relating to 
Lebanon, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea told the 
Ambassador.  Geagea also complained that Saudi Arabia was 
pushing Prime Minister Saad Hariri and the March 14 coalition 
into a position of weakness in its effort to improve its 
relationship with Syria.  The Syrian-Saudi rapprochement has 
taken its toll on March 14 Christians, who perceive a Syrian 
desire to divide and conquer them, according to Geagea.  End 
summary. 
 
CALLS FOR U.S. SUPPORT FOR UNSCR 1559 
------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Syria is pushing hard to annul UN Security Council 
Resolution (UNSCR) 1559 because the resolution contains 
"follow-up mechanisms" which regularly bring international 
attention to bear on Syria's violations and intransigence, 
Geagea told the Ambassador on December 23.  Geagea asked that 
the U.S. publicly reiterate its support for all resolutions 
relating to Lebanon.  Although Geagea assessed that Lebanese 
UN PermRep Nawaf Salam "will not bend to Syrian or (Lebanese) 
MFA pressure," he stressed that U.S. statements were 
necessary in reaction to the active opposition of UNSCR 1559 
by Syria and its Lebanese allies.  "This is a perception of 
balance of power; Syria asked the West to annul 1559, and the 
West must say no," he explained.  Geagea also asked for 
public statements reaffirming U.S. support for the Special 
Tribunal for Lebanon. 
 
SAUDIS WELL-INTENTIONED BUT CLUELESS 
------------------------------------ 
 
3. (C) Saudi Arabia was pushing PM Saad Hariri and the March 
14 coalition into a position of weakness "even though we're 
winners," Geagea complained.  He derided the "childish" Saudi 
notion that "Hizballah is more dangerous than Syria." 
Hizballah's military wing would vanish over time, he 
assessed, but Syria would remain "the main danger" to the 
Lebanese state.  Ibn Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz, the son of 
Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz, Geagea said, had taken 
the lead on Lebanon and Syria and marginalized former Saudi 
ambassador to Lebanon, Abdulaziz Khoja; as a result, Saudi 
financial support to March 14 was drying up.  Geagea noted he 
had spoken with Saudi intelligence director Prince Muqrin bin 
Abdul Aziz the week before to ask him to stop pressuring 
Hariri to make concessions to Syria and its Lebanese allies, 
noting specifically Hariri's trip to Damascus.  Geagea said 
he received no clear response.  "The U.S. government must 
help tell the Saudis they are wrong," Geagea pleaded. 
 
PESSIMISM ON THE DOMESTIC FRONT 
------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Geagea pointed to the contentious inaugural meeting of 
the new Lebanese cabinet as evidence that the national unity 
government would face a rocky path.  For example, although 
nearly all sides agreed that Palestinians must be treated 
humanely, disagreements over what rights they should obtain 
would likely prevent quick forward movement, he assessed.  On 
a positive note, Geagea believed that continued stability 
would open the way for private sector activity to drive 
economic growth. 
 
5. (C) Comment: In the wake of President Michel Sleiman's 
trip to Washington, the Embassy launched an active media 
campaign in support of UNSCR 1559 and our other strategic 
objectives related to Lebanon-related UNSCRs.  Despite 
Syria's recent failure to undercut funding for the UN's 
political work Lebanon, we expect the campaign against UNSCR 
1559 to continue.  The Syrian-Saudi rapprochement has taken 
its toll on March 14 Christians, especially since they 
perceive a Syrian desire to isolate them from Hariri, as they 
have already been estranged from Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. 
 Despite the complaints of Geagea and others regarding the 
evaporation of Saudi funding to March 14 members in Lebanon, 
we have heard that the Saudis began disbursing funds again 
after Hariri's December 19-20 visit to Damascus. 
 
SISON