الحوار مع سوريا خط أحمر بالنسبة إلى جنبلاط

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000117 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR IO PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER 
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2019 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, PINR, UNSC, MARR, MOPS, SY, LE 
SUBJECT: LEBANON: TALKING TO SYRIA IS A REDLINE FOR JUMBLATT 
 
REF: A. BEIRUT 0106 
     B. BEIRUT 0092 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
1. (C) Druze leader Walid Jumblatt lamented to the Ambassador 
in a January 28 meeting that the March 14 alliance was still 
struggling to agree on which candidates will run in each 
district.  Insisting that his relationship with Druze rival 
Talal Arslan was "good," Jumblatt revealed that Arslan had 
indirectly threatened trouble among the Druze if Arslan did 
not "get the Chouf back" in the June elections.  The Armenian 
Tashnaq party would remain with the opposition, he said, and 
would not ally with independent MP Michel Murr.  Jumblatt 
said that when he met Hizballah MP Mohammed Raad with Arslan, 
the two pressured him to meet with the Syrians but he 
refused, saying that was a "red line" for him.  Jumblatt also 
criticized the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) G-2 intelligence 
wing and LAF Commander Kahwagi.  End summary. 
 
MARCH 14 STRUGGLING TO 
AGREE ON CANDIDATES 
---------------------- 
 
2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met Druze 
leader Walid Jumblatt at his residence in Clemenceau on 
January 28.  Characterizing the January 26 meeting of March 
14 members at Qoreitem as "good," Jumblatt said the alliance 
still struggled with agreeing on which candidates will run in 
each district.  They still have not decided who will run in 
Kesarwan, Zgharta, or his own base district, the Chouf, he 
said. 
 
3. (C) In the Chouf, Saad Hariri's advisor Ghattas Khoury, 
National Liberal Party leader Dory Chamoun, and Lebanese 
Forces MP George Adwan are all vying for one of the Maronite 
Christian slots, Jumblatt sighed, declaring (several times), 
"I am tired."  He relayed that Lebanese Forces leader Samir 
Geagea, who currently has five deputies, is hoping to retain 
five Maronite Christian slots, a goal that conflicts with 
Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel's aspiration to gain five 
deputies (his party currently has no deputies since two were 
assassinated). 
 
4. (C) Druze rival Talal Arslan reportedly told Jumblatt that 
he "wanted the Chouf back" from Jumblatt and that he would 
run in the elections himself.  According to Jumblatt, Arslan 
threatened Jumblatt with trouble among the Druze if he was 
unsuccessful.  Jumblatt confessed he was undecided how to 
respond to Arslan, believing that he would need guarantees 
from Arslan that Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party 
deputies would retain their seats if he made a deal with 
Arslan. 
 
5. (C) "Nevertheless," he said, "no one will declare their 
candidacy until the last minute, April 6, because as soon as 
they do, they have to abide by the campaign financing laws 
recently enacted."  (Note:  According the Ministry of 
Interior, nominations of candidates begins on March 2; April 
7 is the last day for nominations; and April 22 is the 
deadline for withdrawing nominations.  End note.) 
 
6. (C) Jumblatt said majority leader Saad Hariri was 
confident that former PM Najib Mikati would partner with him 
for the elections, along with Minister of Economy and Trade 
Mohammed Safadi (Ref A).  Even if the majority loses the 
elections, he predicted, Saad could become the PM, and 
Speaker Nabih Berri would remain in his position.  (However, 
said Jumblatt, Saad's acceptance of a Hizballah-led offer to 
serve as PM would mean "entering into a trap.")  Jumblatt 
said PM Fouad Siniora could run in the elections on Education 
Minister Bahiya Hariri's list in Sidon, Siniora's home town. 
 
TASHNAQ LIKELY TO STAY 
WITH AOUN, NOT MURR 
---------------------- 
 
 
BEIRUT 00000117  002 OF 002 
 
 
7. (C) Jumblatt dismissed reports that there is a division 
between father Michel Murr and son Elias Murr, but admitted 
he was not an expert in "Murrology."  He asserted that the 
Armenian Tashnaq will not ally with MP Michel Murr, and will 
instead remain allied with the opposition.  Jumblatt expected 
that MTV (Murr TV), the potential Christian alternative to 
Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun's OTV, would be 
opening soon after a seven-year interruption, thanks to Saudi 
funding passed through Saad Hariri.  (Note:  Local press 
reported the same day that MTV would resume broadcasting on 
March 31.  End note.) 
 
TALKING TO SYRIANS 
IS A "RED LINE," Thoughts on the Arab Peace Initiative 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
8. (C) Jumblatt met with Hizballah MP Mohammed Raad on 
January 21 (Ref B) in a meeting mediated by Arslan.  He said 
that both Raad and Arslan were pushing him to talk to the 
Syrians.  Noting that his relationship with Arslan since the 
May events has been "good," Jumblatt insisted that meeting 
the Syrians is a "red line" for him and that he had 
communicated this to Arslan and Raad.  Jumblatt recounted a 
disagreement with Raad, who was reportedly seeking to 
establish an "independence day" for the "national liberation 
movements," to which Jumblatt said he responded that 
"Hizballah was not independent." 
 
9. (C) Jumblatt assessed that the Syrians were unlikely to 
"drop Iran for Saudi Arabia" and would not support the Arab 
Peace Initiative.  He further stated that the Syrians needed 
to deliver on getting weapons out of the Palestinian camps, 
but were unable.  Separately, Jumblatt said that if the U.S. 
were to engage directly with Syria, it would be good to first 
signal this opening to the Lebanese and reassure them of its 
support.  He also said that GOL leaders would be labeled as 
traitors if they tried to negotiate even indirectly with 
Israel, and that all of Lebanon's issues with Israel should 
be resoled through the UN. 
 
PROBLEMS IN LAF, ISF 
INTEL ORGANIZATIONS 
-------------------- 
 
10. (C) Jumblatt criticized Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) 
Commander Jean Kahwagi and LAF G-2 (military intelligence) 
Director BG Edmond Fadel, saying the second-in-command at the 
LAF G-2, Col. Abbas Ibrahim, was really in charge and the 
other two were "ignorant of intelligence."  According to 
Jumblatt, the military intelligence was not responding to 
reports that hundreds of PFLP-GC fighters have entered 
Beddawi and Ain el Hilweh Palestinian camps through Qoussaya, 
the PFLP-GC base on the border of Lebanon and Syria, despite 
the fact that they are entering the country with false 
papers. 
 
11. (C) Further, Jumblatt said, the LAF Chief of Staff, Gen. 
Shawki Masri, a Druze close to Jumblatt, is not permitted 
access to military intelligence.  The head of the Internal 
Security Forces (ISF) Information Bureau (intelligence 
branch), Wissam Hassan, who is close to Hariri, had been 
sidelined due to the lack of technical cooperation by 
Minister of Telecommunications Gibran Bassil.  Jumblatt also 
complained that LAF Col. Daniel Fares, who previously worked 
for jailed Gen. Jamil Sayyed at Surete Generale, had been 
seconded to the Telecommunications Ministry to work on 
"bugging" or surveillance (Sayyed was arrested in connection 
with the murder of former PM Rafiq Hariri).  Jumblatt added 
that the Surete General, now under Gen. Wafiq Jezzini, is 
"all Hizballah." 
 
FUTURE TRAVEL PLANS 
------------------- 
 
12. (C) Jumblatt reported that he may travel to Saudi Arabia 
the first week of February, and was also considering a trip 
to Russia. 
SISON