جعجع: "القردنة" تضرّ بالحملات الانتخابية

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000125 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR IO PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER 
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2019 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, PINR, UNSC, KPAL, IS, SY, LE 
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA SEES "MONKEYNESS" HURTING ELECTION 
CAMPAIGNING 
 
REF: A. BEIRUT 117 
     B. BEIRUT 106 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (C) Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea reported to the 
Ambassador in a January 29 meeting that the Syrians were 
"anxious" about Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections, and 
may be making assassination plans (including against himself) 
or violence by proxy in order to sway the elections to their 
liking -- a victory for March 8 and its ally Free Patriotic 
Movement leader Michel Aoun.  Geagea recounted Aoun's 
challenges district by district, believing Aoun faced more 
problems in forming electoral lists with his allies than 
March 14.  The independent candidates, including MP Michel 
Murr, were problematic to both March 14 and March 8, Geagea 
said, because of their "monkeyness" (their propensity to act 
in their own interests rather than for an alliance).  He 
deemed the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) G-2 (military 
intelligence) as "ineffective" because its second-in-command, 
Colonel Abbas Ibrahim, a "Hizballah/Syrian man," was more 
powerful than the actual G-2 Director, BG Edmond Fadel. 
Geagea scoffed at the likelihood of a Saudi-Syrian 
reconciliation while giving credence to the Arab Peace 
Initiative, but only after Palestinian elections determine 
which party has legitimacy.  End summary. 
 
SYRIANS "ANXIOUS" ABOUT 
ELECTIONS IN LEBANON 
----------------------- 
 
2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met Lebanese 
Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea, with advisors Joseph Nehme 
and Elie Khoury, at his residence in Maarab on January 29. 
According to Geagea, the Syrians are "anxious" about 
Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections because they were 
unsure their allies (March 8 and Free Patriotic Movement 
leader Michel Aoun) would win.  He revealed that the Lebanese 
Armed Forces (LAF) G-2 (military intelligence) informed him, 
as did other sources, that the Syrians were "preparing 
something" against himself and his party because they 
consider the LF a threat in the heavily Christian districts. 
 
3. (C) Confiding that he has stopped moving outside his 
well-guarded fortress home and headquarters atop a mountain 
in the past month, Geagea said he hoped the French and the 
U.S. could make the Syrians aware that he knew he was their 
target in order to deter them.  If the assassination tactic 
failed, he surmised, the Syrians would foment trouble in the 
north and the Chouf, via their proxies, Marada leader 
Suleiman Franjieh and Druze figure Wi'am Wahhab, 
respectively. 
 
"AOUN HAS MORE 
PROBLEMS THAN WE DO" 
-------------------- 
 
4. (C) Admitting that the March 14 alliance was struggling to 
agree on hich candidates would run in each district (Ref A) 
Geagea insisted that their rival Aoun has "more problems." 
In Zgharta, he illustrated, Franjieh formed his own list at 
the exclusion of any Aoun candidate, yet Fares Karam, an 
Aounie, reportedly is insisting on running.  Aoun does not 
have any candidates in Akkar, Geagea said, and is competing 
with the SSNP for a slot on the list in Koura (Ref B). 
 
5. (C) Aoun's son-in-law, Telecommunications Minister Gebran 
Bassil, has still not decided whether he will run in Batroun, 
Geagea relayed, where independent candidates might take votes 
away from Bassil.  Geagea said that in Batroun, the 
population equally divides its support among LF, Aoun, and MP 
Boutros Harb of March 14.  Geagea described Jbeil district as 
supportive of President Michel Sleiman, rather than Aoun. 
 
6. (C) Geagea said that independent candidates in Kesarwan -- 
"those monkeys" -- threatened both his and Aoun's popularity. 
 He criticized Mansour Ilbon for publicly attacking the LF 
and Kataeb, and said that Farid Haikal el Khazen was 
confusing because he is "pro-Syrian, anti-Aoun, and wants to 
be independent." 
 
7. (C) Geagea remarked that March 14 does not have a credible 
candidate to run against Agriculture Minister Elie Skaff in 
Zahle, who is allied with Aoun.  Zahle MP Nicholas Fattoush, 
elected in 2005 on March 14's list, was again a possibility 
for March 14, Geagea said, but he was "not liked" in his own 
district. 
 
MICHEL MURR'S "MONKEYNESS" 
UNHELPFUL 
-------------------------- 
 
8. (C) "Michel Murr's monkeyness is spoiling things left and 
right in the Metn," Geagea declared.  Geagea accused Murr of 
"moving back and forth" and forming lists without 
coordinating with anyone.  According to Geagea, Murr will 
include one Kataeb candidate on his Metn list, even though 
"(Kataeb leader Amine) Gemayel is strong than Murr."  Geagea 
sighed, "Murr's megalomania is hurting what would have been 
easy."  He said March 14 members must take care not to push 
Murr back into an alliance with Aoun, and were also waiting 
to see if Murr could coax the Armenian Tashnaq party to leave 
Aoun for March 14. 
 
LAF G-2 "PARALYZED" 
------------------- 
 
9. (C) Concerned about election security, Geagea said that 
historically the LAF G-2 would actively pursue threats, 
however, it was paralyzed by its director, BG Edmond Fadel, 
who Geagea deemed "ineffective" (Ref A).  Geagea recounted 
that he had tried without success to push Fadel to take a 
more active role, but that his second-in-command, Colonel 
Abbas Ibrahim, is "the only one with power" and was "brought 
in for Hizballah."  Geagea wondered if the U.S. or Sleiman 
could encourage Fadel to assume a stronger role. 
 
SAUDI-SYRIAN RECONCILIATION 
MERE "THEATRICS" 
--------------------------- 
 
10. (C) Scoffing at the likelihood of a Saudi-Syrian 
reconciliation, Geagea called the Saudi overtures to the 
Syrians as "theatrics."  Geagea considered the Arab Peace 
Initiative a "good starting point" for newly-appointed 
Special Envoy George Mitchell, but not while Hamas and Fatah 
were divided and competing for legitimacy.  Geagea posited 
that the Palestinians should proceed with presidential and 
legislative elections, saying, "Sometimes it is necessary to 
carry things out to the end before it can get better." 
 
LESS CONCERNED ABOUT 
PALESTINIAN TROUBLE IN LEBANON 
------------------------------ 
 
11. (C) Commenting on recent attention devoted to the issue 
of Palestinian weapons, Geagea predicted that any trouble in 
the refugee camps in Lebanon would be "isolated."  He noted 
that Fatah has the upper hand in all of the camps and 
coordinates with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), making any 
threats fairly containable.  However, he expressed concern 
about the Palestinian weapons outside of the camps, declaring 
the LAF incapable of disarming them. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
12. (C) While the general assumption is that the formation of 
an independent Christian bloc could take votes away from 
Aoun, Geagea's "monkey" labeling suggests that he feels his 
Lebanese Forces party is threatened by such a bloc.  He 
criticized the non-aligned Christians for their independent 
actions, implying they were not committed to March 14. 
Geagea's real concern, however, may be that his LF party 
would lose seats to "independent" candidates who are allied 
with one of his March 14 partners such as Saad Hariri rather 
than to him.  End comment. 
 
SISON