أمين الجميّل يسعى إلى استراتيجية منسّقة لإضعاف حزب الله

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002578 
 
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NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2016 
TAGS: MOPS, PREL, PTER, LE, SY, IS 
SUBJECT: LEBANON:  AMIN GEMAYEL SEEKS COORDINATED STRATEGY 
TO WEAKEN HIZBALLAH 
 
 
Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador.  Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
1.  (C)  In an August 8 meeting with the Ambassador and 
poloff, Kata'eb Party leader and former President Amin 
Gemayel discussed what should follow a cease=fire in the 
current conflict with Israel.  Gemayel is frustrated that the 
Maronite Presidency has been sidelined during Emile Lahoud's 
tenure, and he hopes to expose corruption within the Lahoud 
family in order to force the President to leave office.  He 
also believes that there needs to be a coordinated strategy 
among the Lebanese and international players to "hold 
Hizballah accountable" for provoking the destruction of 
Lebanon and to "reverse the perception" in the Arab-Muslim 
street that Hizballah is the victor in this conflict. 
Gemayel thinks that Hizballah can also be weakened through 
strengthening the moderate Shi'a element, including Nabih 
Berri's Amal party and third-way Shi'a.  Gemayel said the 
Kata'eb is looking to form alliances with these groups.  End 
Summary. 
 
"WE HAVE TO BE PART OF THE KITCHEN" 
----------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C/NF)  Gemayel expressed his annoyance that President 
Lahoud did not attend the Cabinet session on August 7 which 
voted unanimously for the LAF deployment to the South. 
Lahoud has been left out of the game entirely during this 
conflict and, by his inaction, is reducing the Maronite 
Presidency to irrelevance.  "We have to be part of the 
kitchen," exclaimed Gemayel, while urging that a means be 
found to remove Lahoud from Baabda Palace following a 
cease-fire.  Gemayel urged that Lahoud's most vulnerable 
point is his son, Emile Emile, who is implicated in 
money-laundering and the Oil For Food scandal.  If damning 
evidence could be found on Emile Emile, argued Gemayel, the 
father may be forced to step down. 
 
3.  (C)  Gemayel claimed he does not envision a workable 
constitutional process for replacing Lahoud before his term 
ends in November 2007.  While bringing Berri and his Amal 
bloc into the anti-Lahoud camp - "I'm sure Berri doesn't like 
Lahoud" - would in theory provide the two-thirds 
parliamentary majority needed to remove a sitting President, 
Gemayel thinks it will be difficult to liberate Berri from 
Hizballah's - and, by extension, Syria's - influence in the 
Parliament.  "Berri will play the Hizballah game for some 
months." 
 
"MR. NASRALLAH, YOU DESTROYED YOUR COUNTRY" 
------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Regarding how to launch an effective challenge to 
Hizballah's certain intention to claim victory after a 
ceasefire, Gemayel argued for a two-pronged approach, 
coordinated in advance between the Lebanese and the 
international community, weakening Hizballah while 
strengthening other parties and Lebanese government 
institutions.  Gemayel said that the Druze and the Christians 
would be out front in holding Hizballah, and specifically 
Nasrallah, publicly accountable for dragging Lebanon through 
weeks of war.  "That is where we can win the battle, to say: 
'Mr. Nasrallah, you destroyed your country.'"  Gemayel said 
that PM Siniora is on board with this strategy but that he 
could not be as outspoken in his criticism since he has to 
maintain the Cabinet's integrity and also does not want to 
exacerbate Sunni-Shi'a tensions.  Gemayel also asked for 
continued USG support in spreading this message through the 
media and in helping to support the March 14 movement and to 
develop GOL institutions. 
 
5.  (C)  Gemayel said the "coordinated strategy of 
communication," mostly using the media, would also combat the 
Arab-Muslim perception, fostered by Hizballah propaganda, 
that the group's ability to hold out so long against the IDF 
was a "victory."  Gemayel noted that Israel has so far 
mobilized only 25,000 troops and that it has clearly held 
back from a full-scale invasion, while he claimed Hizballah 
has lost 70 percent of its physical strength.  The principal 
Hizballah strongholds - the South, Baalbek, and the southern 
suburbs - have all suffered severe damage.  "It wasn't a 
 
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victory.  It was a disaster.  We need to reverse the 
perception." 
 
BUILDING RELATIONS WITH MODERATE SHI'A 
-------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  If this strategy were to succeed in weakening 
Hizballah, Gemayel said that moderate Shi'a parties, 
including Berri's Amal, need to be able to step in to fill 
the vacuum.  Gemayel plans to work on splitting Berri away 
from Hizballah, and will recruit other Shi'a moderates to 
help him.  Gemayel said he will meet later this week with 
Shi'a leaders to discuss alternatives to Hizballah.  In 
addition, Kata'eb members met with Amal on August 7 to 
coordinate assistance to refugees, a mechanism which Gemayel 
hopes to continue and perhaps formalize into a political 
concord.  He suggested this might even be an avenue for 
providing U.S. assistance to the South. 
 
THE STATE OF MARONITE POLITICS 
------------------------------ 
 
7.  (C)  Asked about the rumours that Free Patriotic Movement 
leader Michel Aoun is losing many of his supporters due to 
his pro-Hizballah stance, Gemayel lamented the fact that many 
of General Aoun's supporters are former Kata'eb party 
faithful who defected from the party during its days in the 
wilderness from 1989 through 2005, when Gemayel finally took 
back control of the party.  Syria effectively controlled the 
party during that time, putting a stooge in charge whose sole 
task was to run the party into the ground, according to 
Gemayel.  Gemayel is having trouble attracting people back 
into the Kata'eb fold.  He admitted that the party's coffers 
are empty, making it difficult to get out and win back 
supporters.  Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement and Samir Ja'ja's 
Lebanese Forces, meanwhile, are both flush with cash, 
according to Gemayel. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8.  (C)  A member of the Christian grouping in the March 14 
movement, Gemayel's desire to reach out to moderate Shi'a is 
a positive development and a creative bit of Lebanese 
confessional alliance-building.  Once again, another 
influential figure, this time Amine Gemayel, is viewing Nabih 
Berri as a pivotal personality in Lebanese politics for and 
any post-ceasefire period.  If Gemayel and the other March 14 
members can indeed cultivate Berri's Amal party and moderate 
Shi'a as an alternative to Hizballah, while also launching a 
media blitz against Hizballah's irresponsible adventurism and 
the destruction wrought by it, perhaps these parties can 
entice Lebanese Shi'a popular support away from Hizballah. 
No doubt Nabih Berri, who hates Hizballah perhaps more than 
any other Lebanese politician but relies on their electoral 
support in the South, would be happy to escape from the 
Hizballah fold.  End Comment. 
FELTMAN